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Thread: Royal Astronomical Society Confirms Link Between Sunspots and Global Warming/Cooling

  1. #1
    Senior Member mugaliens's Avatar
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    Default Royal Astronomical Society Confirms Link Between Sunspots and Global Warming/Cooling

    Article: Irregular heartbeat of the Sun driven by double dynamo

    Excerpts:

    Many solar physicists have put the cause of the solar cycle down to a dynamo caused by convecting fluid deep within the Sun. Now, Zharkova and her colleagues have found that adding a second dynamo, close to the surface, completes the picture with surprising accuracy.

    Zharkova and her colleagues derived their model using a technique called ‘principal component analysis’ of the magnetic field observations from the Wilcox Solar Observatory in California. They examined three solar cycles-worth of magnetic field activity, covering the period from 1976-2008. In addition, they compared their predictions to average sunspot numbers, another strong marker of solar activity. All the predictions and observations were closely matched.

    The model demonstrates that solar activity will fall by 60 percent by 2030 as the magnetic waves inside the Sun will become increasingly more desynchronized during the next two cycles, especially during cycle 26, which covers the decade between 2030 and 2040.

    “In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other – peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a ‘Maunder minimum’,” said Zharkova.

    The Maunder Minimum is the title given to periods of time when sunspots are rare. It last occurred between 1645 and 1715, when roughly 50 sunspots were recorded, as opposed to the standard 40,000. That time was marked by brutal, river-freezing temperatures in Europe and North America.

    This counters the 2006 announcement by NASA Science News: Solar Cycle 25 peaking around 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries. In that article, the astrophysicists thought that the variations of the solar activity depended on the dynamo caused by convecting fluid deep inside the sun.

    It's not one dynamo, people. It's TWO, and yes, it most certainly IS directly related to sunspots!

    It's also the SUN, not AGW, "climate change," or whatever the hell else the pseudo-scientific shysters are calling it these days.

    BOTTOM LINE: We're already experiencing the beginnings of a cooling trend, the first of which will peak in 2022, and the second of which will peak in the mid-2030s. Over the next five years we'll see the beginnings of a mini ice-age. In ten years we'll be in the thick of it, and it will continue for another fifteen years, for a total of at least a quarter century of significantly cooler weather.
    My oath of office never expires. "God, who gave us life, gave us liberty. Can the liberties of a nation be secure when we have removed a conviction that these liberties are the gift of God?" - Thomas Jefferson. "I have far too long suffered fools. No longer will I tolerate the insufferable. Enjoy the vacuum." - Mugs

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    Default Re: Royal Astronomical Society Confirms Link Between Sunspots and Global Warming/Cool

    Quote Originally Posted by mugaliens View Post
    Article: Irregular heartbeat of the Sun driven by double dynamo

    Excerpts:

    Many solar physicists have put the cause of the solar cycle down to a dynamo caused by convecting fluid deep within the Sun. Now, Zharkova and her colleagues have found that adding a second dynamo, close to the surface, completes the picture with surprising accuracy.

    Zharkova and her colleagues derived their model using a technique called ‘principal component analysis’ of the magnetic field observations from the Wilcox Solar Observatory in California. They examined three solar cycles-worth of magnetic field activity, covering the period from 1976-2008. In addition, they compared their predictions to average sunspot numbers, another strong marker of solar activity. All the predictions and observations were closely matched.

    The model demonstrates that solar activity will fall by 60 percent by 2030 as the magnetic waves inside the Sun will become increasingly more desynchronized during the next two cycles, especially during cycle 26, which covers the decade between 2030 and 2040.

    “In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other – peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a ‘Maunder minimum’,” said Zharkova.

    The Maunder Minimum is the title given to periods of time when sunspots are rare. It last occurred between 1645 and 1715, when roughly 50 sunspots were recorded, as opposed to the standard 40,000. That time was marked by brutal, river-freezing temperatures in Europe and North America.

    This counters the 2006 announcement by NASA Science News: Solar Cycle 25 peaking around 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries. In that article, the astrophysicists thought that the variations of the solar activity depended on the dynamo caused by convecting fluid deep inside the sun.

    It's not one dynamo, people. It's TWO, and yes, it most certainly IS directly related to sunspots!

    It's also the SUN, not AGW, "climate change," or whatever the hell else the pseudo-scientific shysters are calling it these days.

    BOTTOM LINE: We're already experiencing the beginnings of a cooling trend, the first of which will peak in 2022, and the second of which will peak in the mid-2030s. Over the next five years we'll see the beginnings of a mini ice-age. In ten years we'll be in the thick of it, and it will continue for another fifteen years, for a total of at least a quarter century of significantly cooler weather.
    It's damn ignorant to claim that humans have nothing to do with climate change. It's equally ignorant to claim knowlegdge about what will happen. Maybe the Maunder minimum is bad news maybe not. Maybe it will cancel part of the warming, maybe the two together will cause something even worse. However anybody with a basic science interest and half a brain can see that something is happening.

    heers
    L-zr

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    Senior Member mugaliens's Avatar
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    Default Re: Royal Astronomical Society Confirms Link Between Sunspots and Global Warming/Cool

    Quote Originally Posted by Lazer View Post
    It's damn ignorant to claim that humans have nothing to do with climate change.
    For those of you who are still drinking the AGW Kool-Aide, here's some animation by CNN:

    CNN - Scientists: Sun's irregular 'heartbeat' could mean future freeze

    Excerpt: "According to the Royal Astronomical Society, the researchers studied the sun's magnetic field activity between 1976 and 2008. They compared their predictions with average sunspot numbers, another strong marker of solar activity, the society reported. The researchers' model showed a 97% level of accuracy, said Valentina Zharkova, a Northumbria University mathematics professor."

    This is PRECISELY the same conclusion I posted on BAUT roughly eight or nine years ago. All the mods back then were still swallowing the Kool-Aide. Phil appears to be drinking it still. Tusenfem suspended me for "not knowing better than posting nonsense on a science forum." Their blind adherence to the CRAP SCIENCE OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING is what made me realize they're a bunch of wannabees, not scientists at all. Just a bunch of ignorant bandwagonists who cannot bring themselves to admit they were STUPID.

    It's equally ignorant to claim knowlegdge about what will happen. Maybe the Maunder minimum is bad news maybe not. Maybe it will cancel part of the warming, maybe the two together will cause something even worse. However anybody with a basic science interest and half a brain can see that something is happening.
    You see, this is what I'm talking about. You don't even know the Maunder Minimum occurred between 1645 and continued to about 1715, yet you call me "damn ignorant?" Sheesh! It's not a "will" issue. It's a "was" issue.

    The coming minimum will in all likelihood be called the Zharkova Minimum. She's the one whose theory is being played out in the Sun's interior as we breath.
    Last edited by mugaliens; 07-15-2015 at 07:55 PM.
    My oath of office never expires. "God, who gave us life, gave us liberty. Can the liberties of a nation be secure when we have removed a conviction that these liberties are the gift of God?" - Thomas Jefferson. "I have far too long suffered fools. No longer will I tolerate the insufferable. Enjoy the vacuum." - Mugs

    PS: I scrambled my password, so no, I will not be responding. Get a clue.

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    Default Re: Royal Astronomical Society Confirms Link Between Sunspots and Global Warming/Cool

    Quote Originally Posted by Lazer View Post
    It's damn ignorant to claim that humans have nothing to do with climate change.
    It's damn ignorant to make assertions without accurately measuring all the variables involved including the most significant, and until this double dynamo theory, unpredictable variable of all. The Sun.


    Quote Originally Posted by Lazer View Post
    It's equally ignorant to claim knowlegdge about what will happen.
    It's childishly ignorant to fail to understand that the purpose and method of science is to make predictions about what will happen. This new theory makes accurate predictions about climate that can be directly tracked into the past climate record. Like "predicting" when the sun will rise tomorrow it makes predictions of what will happen for solar activity and climate.

    Since you obviously fail to understand. This is the final nail in the coffin of AGW.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lazer View Post
    Maybe the Maunder minimum is bad news maybe not. Maybe it will cancel part of the warming, maybe the two together will cause something even worse. However anybody with a basic science interest and half a brain can see that something is happening.

    heers
    L-zr
    Maybe some, in support of a long standing, and thread bare, anti establishment political stance, will continue to dishonestly claim that anything bad is caused by western civilization, and anything good is happening in spite of it.
    Last edited by astrotech; 07-15-2015 at 08:43 PM.
    Lies have the stench of death and defeat.

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    Default Re: Royal Astronomical Society Confirms Link Between Sunspots and Global Warming/Cool

    Quote Originally Posted by astrotech View Post
    It's damn ignorant to make assertions without accurately measuring all the variables involved including the most significant, and until this double dynamo theory, unpredictable variable of all. The Sun.



    It's childishly ignorant to fail to understand that the purpose and method of science is to make predictions about what will happen. This new theory makes accurate predictions about climate that can be directly tracked into the past climate record. Like "predicting" when the sun will rise tomorrow it makes predictions of what will happen for solar activity and climate.

    Since you obviously fail to understand. This is the final nail in the coffin of AGW.



    Maybe some, in support of a long standing, and thread bare, anti establishment political stance, will continue to dishonestly claim that anything bad is caused by western civilization, and anything good is happening in spite of it.

    Ha, more like predicting the weather.

    If we are closing in on a cold spell should it not get colder...

    You really are that stupid. You really do not see what we are doing to the planet...

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    Default Re: Royal Astronomical Society Confirms Link Between Sunspots and Global Warming/Cool

    Quote Originally Posted by Lazer View Post

    If we are closing in on a cold spell should it not get colder...
    Should you not blame that on climate change too?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lazer View Post
    You really are that stupid. You really do not see what we are doing to the planet.. .
    Hotter, colder, you being a failure. It's all the fault of the white man.
    Last edited by astrotech; 07-16-2015 at 02:29 PM.
    Lies have the stench of death and defeat.

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    Senior Member mugaliens's Avatar
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    Default Re: Royal Astronomical Society Confirms Link Between Sunspots and Global Warming/Cool

    Meanwhile, back here on Earth, it turns out that water vapor, not CO2, delivered via high-altitude jets is almost certainly causing the greatest AGW component by far. See link.

    If true, and I see no scientific evidence to show otherwise, we could get rid of carbon output in its entirety, switching to hydrogen-only fuels, and we'd STILL have the same H20 plus wetlands combination that's exacerbating the issue.
    My oath of office never expires. "God, who gave us life, gave us liberty. Can the liberties of a nation be secure when we have removed a conviction that these liberties are the gift of God?" - Thomas Jefferson. "I have far too long suffered fools. No longer will I tolerate the insufferable. Enjoy the vacuum." - Mugs

    PS: I scrambled my password, so no, I will not be responding. Get a clue.

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    Default Re: Royal Astronomical Society Confirms Link Between Sunspots and Global Warming/Cool

    "God, who gave us life, gave us liberty. Can the liberties of a nation be secure when we have removed a conviction that these liberties are the gift of God?" - Thomas Jefferson

    FWIW, I wonder how Jefferson's slaves felt about this.....
    (well, ok, the ones he wasn't banging in his bedroom....)
    Last edited by BuleriaChk; 08-03-2015 at 01:44 AM.
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    Default Re: Royal Astronomical Society Confirms Link Between Sunspots and Global Warming/Cool

    Quote Originally Posted by BuleriaChk View Post
    I wonder how Jefferson's slaves felt about this...
    Boy, Chuck -- Talk about a red herring! I wonder if Jefferson's slaves knew of the term "Red Herring?" Given the fact that the term originated with Aristotle's "On Sophistical Refutations," written by Aristotle in 350 B.C., they certainly may have known about the term.

    Back to reality...

    This graph of actual data from all major temperature peaks of the Antarctic vostokdata confirms the fact that CO2 is NOT the driver of temperature, but rather, the reverse. Increases in temperature drive changes in CO2.

    We can see this clearly in the ice cores of Antarctica for two reasons. First, it's location minimizes local temperature generation. That is, it's reflection of global temperatures is masked by less noise in the data than we see in other sources. Second, the nature of Antarctica's continuously deposited snow and ice render its ice core samples fantastically accurate records of both temperatures and a number of historic gases over the last 33,000 years.

    The other clear indication here is that while scientists may indeed be right that Antarctica is the "fastest-warming place on Earth," it's currently still WELL below the temperatures from 29,000 years ago to about 12,000 years ago.

    This tells me that Earth's pre-civilization eras, it was perfectly normal for temperatures to be higher than they are now. Thus, all the crap about man-made global warming, climate change, or whatever they may call it next week remains complete bullshit.

    Antartic Vostok Ice Core Data - Several Millennia.png
    My oath of office never expires. "God, who gave us life, gave us liberty. Can the liberties of a nation be secure when we have removed a conviction that these liberties are the gift of God?" - Thomas Jefferson. "I have far too long suffered fools. No longer will I tolerate the insufferable. Enjoy the vacuum." - Mugs

    PS: I scrambled my password, so no, I will not be responding. Get a clue.

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